USA Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2020
The US economy in Q1 2020 was strongly affected by the effects of the coronavirus crisis causing simultaneous supply and demand shocks affecting consumer demand, investment plans, export sales and employment. Following a relatively calm first few weeks of the year, the disease emerged in the US in mid-February, turning New York into one of the most infected areas worldwide. Donald Trump’s calls for a gradual reopening of the economy came up against tough opposition from the health community given there have been 48,816 dead and 899,281 infected with the disease as of April 26.
USA Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
The US economy continued to grow further in Q4 2019, which prompted some experts to predict that the expansion would continue into Q1 2020, although this prediction remains largely dependent on the COVID-19 outbreak and its consequences on the global economy.
The CEIC Leading Indicator supports the case for continued expansion. The indicator, which is designed to predict the turning points of the business cycle, apparently bottomed out in July at 93.58, seasonally adjusted, and kept increasing to 96.04 in December 2019 and to 97.06 in January 2020.
USA Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
US growth continued to subside to more moderate levels in the third quarter of 2019 but has kept its momentum. Real GDP expanded by 2.03% y/y compared to 2.3% in Q2 2019. The trade war has taken its toll but the growth differential with the rest of the developed world still remains evident. The treasury yield curve is only slightly inverted in its short end, at the two-year vs. five-year maturity periods, a phenomenon claimed to precede a recession. The 30-year treasury yield was 2.19% as of October 31
USA Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for the US economy slowed down to 90.3 in July 2019, in line with the downward trend observed since February 2018. With the US economy recording slower growth in Q2 relative to Q1, the first signs of a slowdown are observed in line with the leading indicator’s performance since 2018. These signs also became evident in the stock market where volatility increased in what some analysts see as a prelude to a major correction over the following months.
USA Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
Amid talks of slowing global growth, the US economy recorded another strong quarter in Q1 2019 in one of the last stages of the current business cycle, backed by strong consumption and both direct and portfolio investments. Retail sales and consumer sentiment, the main drivers of the US economy, showed continued strength. The existing growth rate differential with the rest of the developed world led to investors once again pumping billions of dollars in US debt and equity,