Russia Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
Despite the early measures that the Russian government undertook to tackle the spread of COVID-19, the global pandemic will weigh on economic activity at the end of Q1 and throughout Q2 2020. Even before the spread of the disease, growth was expected to slow down according to the CEIC Leading Indicator for Russia. The leading indicator trended downwards since its peak at 109.05 in May 2018. In August the index fell below the threshold of 100, which indicates the long-term trend, for the first time since September 2017 as it stood at 99.42.
Russia Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
Economic activity in Russia is expected to remain sluggish according to our CEIC Leading Indicator. The freefall of the leading indicator from its peak at 108.4 in May 2018 ended in Q3 when the index stood at 98.9 in August and September. In June the index fell below the threshold of 100, which indicates the long-term trend, for the first time since September 2017. The index remained at 98.9 in October and November, thus no acceleration of economic activity is foreseen in the short run.
Russia Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
Economic activity in Russia is forecast to slow down, as the CEIC Leading Indicator shows. According to preliminary data, the indicator dropped below the long term benchmark value of 100 in June, standing at 99.96. It kept trending down in the following two months to reach 97.8 in August. Weak retail sales, slowing external demand and slipping global oil prices are expected to weigh on the economic growth in the short term.
Russia Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
Russia’s economic deceleration is expected to continue according to the CEIC Leading Indicator, which has sustained its negative trend. The indicator increased to 108.10 in May 2018 (forecasting the subsequent acceleration of the economy in H2 2018), before sloping downward to reach 100.10 in June 2019, marginally above the threshold of 100. While equity market index and passenger cars production impacted positively overall growth, coal mining and petroleum products production contracted in Q2 2019 to offset this positive effect and contribute to the economic slowdown.
Russia Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
Russia’s economic performance seems to be losing steam according to the CEIC Leading Indicator. Preliminary data for January 2019 shows that the indicator decreased with 0.6 points to 100.7 (compared to December) and approached the threshold value of 100. Russia was in the expansion phase from January 2016 to May this year when it reached a peak value of 113, but has been declining steadily for the second half of 2018.