Japan Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator ticked up marginally in October and continued to increase to 94.31 in January 2020, from the steady downward trend throughout Q3 2019 and 86.30 in September. This mirrors the previous movements of the indicator, which peaked at 112.9 in January 2018 and thereafter declined continually until September 2019, and suggests a rapidly waning growth momentum and a highly subdued short-term economic outlook.
The risks of a recession in Japan are growing.
Japan Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator remained on a steady downward trend throughout Q3 and in October, suggesting a lower growth rate at least for a quarter ahead. The indicator peaked in December 2017 and has been declining since, reflecting the 2018 moderation of the Japanese economy. The weakness in the manufacturing sector persists and a rebound over the coming months seems unlikely. The manufacturing PMI remained firmly below the 50 threshold, reaching its lowest since mid-2016 in October (48.4).
Japan Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
The smoothed CEIC leading indicator remained on a steady downward trend in July, suggesting lower growth rate at least for a quarter ahead. The indicator peaked in December 2017 and has been declining since, reflecting the 2018 moderation of the Japanese economy. Manufacturing PMI points to a continuation of the weakness in the sector, as in July it remained below the threshold of 50 for a third consecutive month, at 49.4. Services PMI continues to be stable, at 51.8.
Japan Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
The smoothed CEIC leading indicator remained on a steady downward trend in May, suggesting lower growth rate at least for a quarter ahead. The indicator peaked in November 2017 and has been declining since, reflecting the 2018 moderation of the Japanese economy. Manufacturing PMI points to a continuation of the weakness in the sector, as in May it fell again below the threshold of 50, to 49.8. The index has been fluctuating around the 50 value threshold since the beginning of the year.