Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2020
Presenting a positive outlook for the Indonesian economy, both the smoothed and non-smoothed CEIC Leading Indicators for Indonesia were indicative of economic expansion in January 2020, coming in at 101.89 and 100.30, respectively. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused the non-smoothed indicator to decline in February 2020, to 101.29, just above the threshold level dividing expansion from contraction with the smoothed indicator moving into the contraction zone. With the outlook worsening, indicators fell further in March 2020, with the non-smoothed indicator at 88.08 and the smoothed one sliding to 95.23.
Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator recorded an upward trend from March 2019, and from September 2019 the index surpassed the threshold of 100 and continued in the expansionary zone. The non-smoothed indicator was somewhat volatile in 2019 – it touched a low of 94.27 in May 2019 and reached a high of 106.53 in December 2019. The first quarter of 2020 started in the expansionary zone with a non-smoothed value at 100.61 in January 2020 thus presenting a positive outlook for the Indonesian economy on the back of reforms and pro-growth policies of the government.
Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
Following a 14-month downward trend that ended at a 2019 low of 96.59 points in March 2019, the smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator picked up in April and kept rising to reach 101.96 points in October 2019. In September, the index surpassed the threshold of 100. The non-smoothed indicator was rather volatile in Q3, standing at 101.32 and 101.07 in July and September, respectively, divided by a drop to 97.87 points in August. In October, the index rose to a 2019-high of 102.56 points, suggesting improving economic activity in the short term.
Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator, after declining for 15 months, started inching up from April 2019, and as of September 2019, the index reached 100.53. The non-smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator has been more volatile, witnessing sharp ups and downs over Q3. In July, the indicator was at 101.87, then declined to 97.72 in August, and went up once again in September to 101.03. The weakening global demand is having an adverse effect on the Indonesian economy, with export growth declining significantly.
Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
The Smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined for the 15th month in a row in April to reach 96.3, down by 0.3 points m/m. The indicator hit a five-year high of 106.2 in January 2018 but the rest of the year failed to follow suit and October data fell below the long term trend of 100. The weakening global demand is having an adverse effect on the Indonesian economy with export growth declining significantly in the last six months while on the domestic front stagnation in motor vehicle sales and cement consumption is contributing to the lacklustre performance.
Indonesia Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
A downturn is likely in store for Indonesia’s economy in 2019 according to the CEIC Leading Indicator. The indicator value has been declining for 13 months straight to reach 96.3 in February, down by 0.4% m/m, according to preliminary data. Although 2018 was off to a promising start with the indicator hitting a five-year high of 105.9 in January, the rest of the year failed to follow suit and September data fell below the long-term trend of 100 for the first time in two years.