India Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
The latest high-frequency indicators suggest the Indian economy is now in worse shape than a year ago due to the coronavirus crisis.
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator rose between November 2019 and February 2020, after touching a 2019 low of 92.7 in October, to reach its highest since August 2014. This indicates that economic growth was improving in Q1 2020. However, other indicators, such as the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), and composite PMI, illustrate the immediate hit to economic prospects in March.
India Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator reached 107.1 in May 2019 after which it declined sharply to 91.7 in September 2019, indicating lower GDP numbers in Q3 2019. The indicator reached a low of 82.5 in October and rose to 90.3 in November, suggesting that GDP growth will continue to languish in Q4 2019. The non-smoothed indicator remained far below its long term trend in November 2019, suggesting continued anaemic economic activity, although it was slightly above the smoothed line in the same month.
India Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator had reached its peak in May 2019 and has been declining thereafter, indicating lower GDP growth numbers in Q2 2019. The actual indicator moved below its long term trend and smoothed line in June 2019, suggesting anaemic economic activity. Leading indicators such as passenger car sales and air cargo traffic growth have been on a downward trend. Corporate earnings have also been subdued in the first half of 2019.
India Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator has been on the growth path since January, reaching 99.7 in May and raising hope that the Indian economy would return to an expansion phase soon. The smoothed indicator had been in a continuous decline in the latter half of 2018 thus corresponding with the current slip in GDP growth from 6.6% to 5.8% in March 2019. Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, has declined to 52.6 in March 2019, from the high value of 54.3 in February 2019. It has been slightly volatile although there have been no sharp movements from April to June.
India Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
The CEIC Leading Indicator for the Indian economy continued its negative trend in February 2019, falling to 92.2 – a 1.1 point decrease compared to the previous month and its lowest value since January 2017. The leading indicator was in an expansion phase from the beginning of 2017 until mid-2018 when it began to drop from its peak value of 103 – correctly anticipating the real GDP growth acceleration of India starting from Q2 2017.