India Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
 
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator had reached its peak in May 2019 and has been declining thereafter, indicating lower GDP growth numbers in Q2 2019. The actual indicator moved below its long term trend and smoothed line in June 2019, suggesting anaemic economic activity. Leading indicators such as passenger car sales and air cargo traffic growth have been on a downward trend. Corporate earnings have also been subdued in the first half of 2019.
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India Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
 
The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator has been on the growth path since January, reaching 99.7 in May and raising hope that the Indian economy would return to an expansion phase soon. The smoothed indicator had been in a continuous decline in the latter half of 2018 thus corresponding with the current slip in GDP growth from 6.6% to 5.8% in March 2019. Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, has declined to 52.6 in March 2019, from the high value of 54.3 in February 2019. It has been slightly volatile although there have been no sharp movements from April to June.
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India Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
 
The CEIC Leading Indicator for the Indian economy continued its negative trend in February 2019, falling to 92.2 – a 1.1 point decrease compared to the previous month and its lowest value since January 2017. The leading indicator was in an expansion phase from the beginning of 2017 until mid-2018 when it began to drop from its peak value of 103 – correctly anticipating the real GDP growth acceleration of India starting from Q2 2017.
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