CEIC India GDP Nowcast

A proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights, aimed to anticipate India's GDP growth on a real-time basis.

NOVEL CORONAVIRUS HIGHLIGHTS

Number of confirmed
cases

Activity remains mostly unchanged y/y (3.3% increase in the number of deals to 317, 0.4% decrease in value to EUR 22.56bn)

Number of confirmed
cases

Not only did Real Estate & Construction have the highest number of deals, it also was the biggest sector by value – with EUR 16.6bn

Number of confirmed
cases

Activity remains mostly unchanged y/y (3.3% increase in the number of deals to 317, 0.4% decrease in value to EUR 22.56bn)

Number of confirmed
cases

Not only did Real Estate & Construction have the highest number of deals, it also was the biggest sector by value – with EUR 16.6bn

GDP Nowcast | India

Explore our weekly updates and analysis, covering India's GDP growth with the support of data, charts and statistics on high-frequency indicators.

 

CEIC users will be able to access all data series. If you would like to access the full CEIC India Premium Database, including our extended data related to the GDP Nowcast series, you can request a demonstration below.

 

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Everything you need to know about CEIC GDP Nowcast

This section provides an overview of our GDP Nowcast, presenting frequently asked questions to help you identify the impact and effectiveness of this tool. 

What is GDP Nowcast?

A combination of the words now and forecast, a GDP Nowcast shows the current state of the economy without having to wait for the official quarterly GDP. We nowcast economic growth by using a set of selected high-frequency indicators that reflect all aspects of the economy, including manufacturing, consumption, services, financial sector, prices, external trade, and others.

Why are we nowcasting?

GDP data is released with significant lags and is not representative of the current state of the economy, while individual high-frequency indicators provide only fragmentary signals for the economic status quo. In contrast, our GDP Nowcast methodology is a combination of both – a comprehensive picture of the whole economy that is updated in real time, which makes it a preferred tool for decision making and timely analysis.

What is the methodology?

The GDP Nowcast methodology is based on a set of selected high-frequency indicators, employed in a dynamic factor model. Dynamic factor models outperform standard univariate models such as random-walk or autoregressive models in estimating GDP. By using this approach, we update our GDP Nowcast, the estimate of GDP growth in the current and the next quarter, every time when new data for any of the high-frequency indicators is available. The model uses a dynamic factor of 1.

How are the high-frequency indicators selected?

For India GDP Nowcast, a total of 24 indicators have been selected, spanning the whole range of the economy such as consumption, manufacturing, transportation, prices, external trade, financial, and a few miscellaneous indicators such as gross tax revenue, farm tractor sales, and rainfall. All these indicators have had a strong correlation with the GDP growth historically. Most of them are published monthly, except rainfall, which is a daily indicator aggregated to a monthly frequency to fit the model and be consistent with the other indicators. Since timeliness is an important aspect of the real-time monitoring of the economy, the maximum data release lag for each indicator is 30 days.  

How do we define current and next quarters? 

The current quarter means the quarter for which the GDP data is expected to be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), the official source of India GDP data, while next quarter refers to the following quarter. MOSPI usually releases the Q1 calendar year GDP data at the end of May, Q2 at the end of August, Q3 at the end of November, and Q4 at the end of January of the next year.

Why is the GDP Nowcast for the current quarter not updated in May, August, November and January?

The current quarter GDP Nowcast is not updated in these months, because all information for that quarter provided by the high-frequency indicators is already available. In May, for example, our current quarter GDP Nowcast refers to Q1 (January-March) because the official GDP data for that period is published at the end of May. However, the GDP Nowcast data for the current quarter, in that case, Q1 (January-March), is not updated in that month, because the new data for the high-frequency indicators released in May refers to April. On the other hand, the next quarter, Q2 (April-June), data will be continued in that month. After the official Q1 GDP data is released at the end of May, we will switch our current quarter reference to Q2 (April-June) and next quarter to Q3 (July-September). 

Why are we using passenger car and two-wheeler sales from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers instead of motor vehicle registrations?

While vehicle registrations are a better indicator of the economy, small yet frequent revisions in the series makes it unsuitable for the nowcast model. Furthermore, the passenger car and two-wheeler sales turn out statistically significant for the model.

What are the components of digital payments?

Ideally, digital payments should include payments across all digital platforms such as card payments, transfers via Unified Payments Interface (UPI), mobile payments, prepaid payments, real-time gross settlement system (RTGS), national electronic funds transfer (NEFT), and immediate payment system (IMPS). Among these, only data pertaining to RTGS, NEFT, and IMPS are released timely. Also, there was no significant difference in using the partial set instead of the whole, in terms of impact on the nowcast.

What is the logic for selecting the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex index instead of the National Stock Exchange, Nifty50 index?

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex index consists of 30 companies while the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 consists of 50 companies. However, the BSE Sensex is more niche, in a bullish market, which makes its value greater than the NSE Nifty50.

Why is the industrial production index or infrastructure industries index not being used?

Both the industrial production index and the infrastructure industries index are key indicators of economic activity but are released with a 40-day lag which is not ideal for a nowcasting model. Instead, our GDP Nowcast model uses metal and cement production data to analyse industrial activity.

All of the data that makes up our India GDP Nowcast dataset is comprised of series within the CEIC India Premium Database. You can learn more and request a demonstration with one of our representatives through the link below.
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CEIC India Quarterly Snapshot Reports 

Our India Economy in a Snapshot reports provide a comprehensive, albeit concise overview of the economic and financial developments from quarter to quarter in the country. 

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