NOVEL CORONAVIRUS HIGHLIGHTS

Number of confirmed
cases

Activity remains mostly unchanged y/y (3.3% increase in the number of deals to 317, 0.4% decrease in value to EUR 22.56bn)

Number of confirmed
cases

Not only did Real Estate & Construction have the highest number of deals, it also was the biggest sector by value – with EUR 16.6bn

Number of confirmed
cases

Activity remains mostly unchanged y/y (3.3% increase in the number of deals to 317, 0.4% decrease in value to EUR 22.56bn)

Number of confirmed
cases

Not only did Real Estate & Construction have the highest number of deals, it also was the biggest sector by value – with EUR 16.6bn

CEIC DATA COVERAGE OF COVID-19

Questions and answers around what datasets CEIC offers that could help with monitoring the outbreak and potential impact.

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What is COVID- 19?

The World Health Organisation (WHO) defines COVID-19 (or formally, Coronavirus Disease 2019) as an infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. As its name implies, COVID-19 is just part of a large family of viruses that are known to affect humans, ranging from the common cold to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Note that while COVID-19 is related to SARS (genetically), they are both distinct diseases. 

Which CEIC datasets can help paint a global picture of the impact of COVID-19?

CEIC Data includes various datasets on COVID-2019 in our Daily Database. We currently provide detailed statistics on COVID-19 as provided by the WHO here with additional disaggregation (by province) for occurrences in China. 
 
Additionally, national or local sources may release additional detailed statistics on COVID-19 outbreak specific to their countries. CEIC clients will be able to click on the links below to view datasets. 

Europe: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

French Public Health Agency

Germany: Robert Koch Institute

Hong Kong: Centre for Health Protection

Iran: Ministry of Health and Medical Education

Italy: Ministry of Health

Japan: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

South Korea: Korea Centre for Disease Control and Prevention

Spain: Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare

Taiwan: Ministry of Health and Welfare

United Kingdom: Department of Health and Social Care

United States: Centre for Disease Control

What kind of CEIC datasets can we provide to help monitor the impact on tourism/ travel/ airline industries?

It may be helpful to look at travel statistics on China, at least at the early stages of the crisis given that the initial travel restrictions largely applied to China (and given its significant contribution to tourist arrivals for many countries). 

 

The following list out the major countries in concern with related tables in higher frequency. CEIC clients will be able to click on the links below to access the databases.

 

China GDB

Table CN.TA012: Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited
Table CN.TA013: Hainan Meilan International Airport

China CNP

Table CN.TI: Air: Passenger Traffic
Table CN.TI: Air Industry Overview
Table CN.TI: Air: Passenger Turnover
Table CN.TI: Air: Freight Traffic
Table CN.TI: Air: Freight Turnover
Table CN.TI: Air: Freight Turnover: Cargo
Table CN.TI: Air: Passenger Load Factor
Table CN.TI: Air: Freight Load Factor
Table CN.TI: Air: Aircraft Daily Utilization
Table CN.TI: Airport: Passenger Throughput: Monthly
Table CN.TI: Airport: Freight Throughput: Monthly
Table CN.TI: Airport: Number of Flight Handled: Monthly

France

Table FR.TA015: Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport
Table FR.TA016: Paris Orly Airport
Table FR.TA017: Nice Cote d’Azur Airport

Germany

Table DE.TA004: Air Transport Traffic: Passenger
Table DE.TA005: Air Transport Traffic: Passenger: Arrivals by Country
Table DE.TA006: Air Transport Traffic: Passenger: Departures by Country
Table DE.TA007: Air Transport Traffic: Passenger: Departures: Final Destination by Country
Table DE.TA008: Passenger Traffic by Airport
Table DE.TA009: Airports: Freight Handled
Table DE.TA010: Airports: Freight Handled by Airport
Table DE.TA011: Aircraft Movement
Table DE.TA012: Aircraft Movement by Airport
Table DE.TA013: Frankfurt Airport
Table DE.TA014: Munich Airport
Table DE.TA015: Air Transport: Flight Performance
Table DE.TA016: Air Transport: Passenger Carried
Table DE.TA017: Air Transport: Passenger Kilometres
Table DE.TA019: Air Transport: Capacity Utilization
Table DE.TA020: Air Transport: Freight Traffic and Others

Japan

Table JP.TA005: Airport Statistics: Narita Airport
Table JP.TA006: Airport Statistics: Kansai International Airport
Table JP.TA007: Airport Statistics: Haneda (Tokyo) International Airport
Table JP.TA008: Airlines Statistics
Table JP.TA009: Airlines Statistics: Japan Airlines Group
Table JP.TA010: Airlines Statistics: ANA Group

Spain

Table ES.TA008: Air Transportation
Table ES.TA009: Passenger Traffic at Airports
Table ES.TA010: Freight Handled at Airports
Table ES.TA011: Aircraft Movement
Table ES.TA012: Madrid Barajas Airport
Table ES.TA013: Barcelona-El Prat Airport
Table ES.TA014: Marine Transportation

Singapore

Table SG.TA013: Singapore Airlines Statistics
Table SG.TA015: Changi Airport Statistics

Thailand

Table TH.TA026: Flight and Passenger Statistics
Table TH.TA035: Regional Airport Statistics: Domestic: Northern
Table TH.TA036: Regional Airport Statistics: Domestic: Northeastern
Table TH.TA037: Regional Airport Statistics: Domestic: Southern
Table TH.TA039: Suvarnabhumi International Airport
Table TH.TA040: Don Mueang International Airport
Table TH.TA041: Chiang Mai International Airport
Table TH.TA042: Chiang Rai Airport
Table TH.TA043: Hat Yai Airport
Table TH.TA044: Phuket Airport

Taiwan

Table TW.TA008: Civil Aviation: Aircraft Movements
Table TW.TA009: Civil Aviation: Passengers Carried
Table TW.TA011: Civil Aviation: Freight Carried
Table TW.TA010: Civil Aviation: Number of Available Seats and Passenger Load Factor

South Korea

Table KR.TA006: Air Traffic Movements
Table KR.TA007: Air Transport Statistics: Flight Performance
Table KR.TA008: Air Transport Statistics: Passenger Carried
Table KR.TA009: Air Transport Statistics: Passenger Kilometers
Table KR.TA011: Air Transport Statistics: Capacity Utilization
Table KR.TA012: Air Transport Statistics: Freight Handled
Table KR.TA013: Air Transport Statistics: Freight Ton Kilometers

UK

Table UK.TA008: Airline Statistics
Table UK.TA005: Aircraft Movement: by Airport

USA

Table US.TA009: Air Traffic Statistics
Table US.TA012: Airport Statistics: Atlantic City International Airport
Table US.TA013: Airport Statistics: Dallas Fort Worth International Airport
Table US.TA014: Airport Statistics: Denver International Airport
Table US.TA015: Airport Statistics: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport
Table US.TA016: Airport Statistics: John F. Kennedy International Airport
Table US.TA017: Airport Statistics: LaGuardia Airport
Table US.TA018: Airport Statistics: Los Angeles International Airport
Table US.TA019: Airport Statistics: Midway Airport
Table US.TA020: Airport Statistics: Newark Liberty International Airport
Table US.TA021: Airport Statistics: O'Hare International Airport
Table US.TA022: Airport Statistics: Ontario International Airport
Table US.TA023: Airport Statistics: Stewart International Airport

Hong Kong

Table HK.Q013: Arrivals: Passenger: By Control Point

Table HK.Q014: Arrivals: Passenger: By Visitor

Table HK.Q017: Departures: Passenger: By Control Point

Table HK.Q018: Departures: Passenger: By Visitor

What kind of datasets can we provide to help monitor the impact on the financial market? What can the equity markets tell us?

Equity indices, in particular, tend to move relatively quickly in response to daily news items, including the COVID-19 outbreak. There is a general consensus that COVID-19 was one of the major contributory factors (along with the OPEC price wars) to the dramatic decline in financial indices on the so-called “2020 Black Monday” (9Mar20) and its continued decline on Thursday (12Mar20).

 

The choice of which equity index for evaluating, however, depends on the scope and the requirements of the users. For global indices, our 'S&P Global Index' offers a broad overview of the impact of COVID-19 on the equity index. Other national equity indices are likely to be more useful for country-specific analysis, again depending on the scope and the user’s requirements.

Does this suggest that the COVID-19 is largely responsible for the changes in the equity indices?

Bear in mind that there are various factors, including seasonality, which may affect the trajectory of equity indices. In addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, there were other major international events that were coincident with the outbreak including, but not limited to: -

  • The formal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (into a transitional period);
  • Bushfires affecting Australia;
  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East, this time partially sparked by the assassination of an Iranian general by the US, leading to Iran’s subsequent retaliation against a US base;
  • Argentina’s declaration of non-repayment of its IMF debt until its economy exits its recession;
  • The collapse of dialogue between OPEC and Russia, triggering a freefall in oil prices

Additionally, local news may have varying implications for certain country-specific analysis,

These events may have differing magnitude (and direction) on the equity indices. While it is likely that COVID-19 is a major factor in these movements, it is worth noting that equity indices are typically affected by a constellation of factors, rather than any one factors.

What about the bond markets?

Our yields of government securities (Treasury Notes and Bills) dataset is frequently evaluated for clues on what lies ahead for the economy. Similar to the equity indices, treasury yields often reflects the financial market's assessment of risk. However, the yields of different maturities can help users clue in on the short term, medium term, long term, and very long term trajectory of the economy. Higher short term yields over long term yields are often perceived as a red flag, possibly signalling a recession.

In light of the COVID-19, treasury yields, and likely other bond yields, are likely to see downward pressure, particularly for shorter maturities as short-term risks weigh. Matching these daily yields to the day-by-day progression of COVID-19, for example, can offer users clues on the severity of its impact on the yield curve. However, as with equity indices, movements in yields should not be attributed to any one factor(s), especially depending on idiosyncratic-factors specific to a country.

While there are some academic debates on the predictive powers of Treasury yields (especially as central banks become more assertive in their monetary policy intervention), the magnitude (and shape) of these shifts continue to be a consideration for some analysts within the industry.

How are commodity prices likely to be affected by COVID-19?

We host separate sector-level data which can be found in our  World Trend Plus Database for the commodity market.

 

With some exception, COVID-19 is likely to have a negative impact on commodity prices from softer demand, especially in light of news suggesting the suspension of production to help isolate COVID-19. This is expected to impact mainly raw materials (minerals and non-minerals) and energy prices, with a relatively smaller impact on food-produces in the agricultural sector.

 

As noted earlier, it is worth repeating that the COVID-19 also coincided with a breakdown in talks between Saudi Arabia-led OPEC with Russia – with OPEC’s 2017-2020 scheduled to expire in Mar20 and higher oil production expected for Apr20, it is likely that the worse may have yet to come for oil prices if production indeed ramps up and further price cuts are announced. In tandem with softer demand from COVID-19, it would be prudent to anticipate these supply-based factors to further weigh down against oil prices. The eventual impact of the twin COVID-19 and OPEC Price War is outside the scope of this explainer but depending on the extent of escalation/de-escalation, expect some downward impact on the fiscal balances of oil-rich countries (many of these countries have a fiscal breakeven point for oil prices to balance its books), investments in oil and gas (O&G) sectors (especially the higher-cost producers, such as the shale oil producers), among others.

 

Are there any exceptions to the downward pressure on commodity prices?

As noted earlier, agriculture food prices may be somewhat more insulated from the COVID-19’s impact, though the situation remains fluid, especially if there are unanticipated shortages and/or cases of further escalation in COVID‑19 outbreak.

 

This is not to say that the downward pressure in commodity prices is expected to be consistent across the board. On the contrary, gold (and to a much smaller extent, other precious metals) tend to buck this trend. Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven asset of sorts (despite having some practical applications as raw materials in certain production processes) as gold prices tend to increase during periods of uncertainties/high risk.

Can foreign exchange be used similarly to gauge the impact of COVID-19?

The relationship of short-term foreign exchange (FOREX) and the underlying economy is somewhat more tenuous. While there are linkages of the long-term FOREX trajectory and the underlying economy, short term FOREX is less likely to reflect fundamentals and more likely to reflect sentiments. However, unlike the various asset classes, short-term FOREX tends to be less tied to the real economy and affected by too many non-fundamental factors – it is sometimes debatable among portfolio management circles on whether FOREX should be treated as an asset class in its own right.

 

This is further complicated by the basis for comparison. Conventionally, FOREX is evaluated in the context of currency pairs (i.e. the market value of a currency relative to base currency). While some usages favour comparison with the US Dollar (USD), with over 500 confirmed cases reported in the US as at 11Mar20, it is dubious if one could come to a meaningful conclusion with a USD currency. Similarly, with COVID-19 seeing a significant impact in the Euro Area (most prominently Italy but with a significant presence in France and Germany), Japan (over 500 cases as at 11Mar20), among others, finding the right currency pairs may be challenging, in the first place.

 

However, oddly, the data suggests that Swiss Franc continue to maintain its status of a safe haven currency of sorts (probably due to historical reasons). Despite reporting around 490 cases as at 11Mar20, Swiss Franc has maintained relative stability, notwithstanding incidences of COVID-19 in the country.

How can our Russia Premium Database help you monitor COVID-19?

What type of data is being offered to monitor the overall Coronavirus status in Russia Premium?

Russia Premium plans to include timely and accurate Coronavirus statistics published by the Ministry of Health of Russia, which is the primary local data source. The datasets will allow you to the number of people infected, recovered and dead as well as the number of people tested on a national level. This data helps to monitor the coronavirus latest status and to estimate further development of the pandemic within Russia. The datasets will be used by economists in forecasting near term economic consequences for the Russian economy.

 

Does Russia Premium cover any Russian city level coronavirus related statistics? 

The data also includes regional statistics of the infected people, which allows you to identify the key regions at risk of further contamination. There is also data available for the two federal cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

 

 

Valuable high-frequency dataset examples in Russia Premium that can help you monitor COVID-19 economic effects

 

Monetary Section

Inflation (Daily/ Weekly) – Weekly Inflation Estimates provided by Federal State Statistics Service

Client Access to Table RU.IA007: Consumer Price Index: Weekly Estimate

 

Monetary Statistics in Daily Frequency

Client Access to Table RU.DM001: Monetary Base and International Reserves: Bank of Russia

Client Access to Table RU.DM002: Foreign Currencies Operations: Bank of Russia

Client Access to Table RU.DM003: Secured Loans Debt: Bank of Russia: by Maturity

Client Access to Table RU.DM004: Secured Loans Debt: Bank of Russia: by Type

Client Access to Table RU.DM005: Budgetary Funds Allotment on Commercial Banks Deposits: Federal Treasury

Client Access to Table RU.DM006: Budgetary Funds Allotment on REPO Operations: Federal Treasury

Client Access to Table RU.DM007: Liquidity Indicators: Banks Deposit with Bank of Russia

Client Access to Table RU.DM008: Liquidity Indicators: Banks Correspondent Account Balances with Bank of Russia

Client Access to Table RU.DM009: Liquidity Indicators: Intraday Loans Extended by Bank of Russia

Schedule a no-obligation demo for you and your team to learn more about our Russia Premium Database and how our granular datasets can help you monitor the impact of COVID-19