CEIC Insight - New FGV Data Provides In-Depth Analysis of
Brazil’s Inflation Dynamic






Brazil saw a substantial decline in inflation rate between April and August 2020, when many business activities were subdued due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This allowed the central bank to expand the monetary relief programme that started a year earlier. The central bank cut the key interest rate SELIC gradually to a record low of 2% in August 2020. To avoid a significant decrease in households’ income, caused by a struggling labour market, the federal government put aside its fiscal austerity programme and increased expenditures by more than BRL 524bn (around 7% of GDP) as of December 31, 2020. The bulk of it (56%) was spent on the emergency aid – an income transfer programme to assist unemployed, informal and self-employed workers affected by the pandemic.

In order to monitor the growing inflationary process we added the dataset of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) – a new addition to Brazil Premium Database – which contains the following series on inflation:

• The Producer Price Index IPA-M monitors prices of agricultural and industrial products in corporate transactions, that is, at stages preceding households’ consumption.

• The Consumer Price Index IPC-BR-M calculates average price variations of goods and services demanded by families with incomes up to 33 times the national minimum wage in seven major cities in the country.

• The National Construction Cost Index INCC-M monitors house construction costs

• The General Market Price Index IGP-M is an overall indicator of price movements which considers different stages of the production process. It is a weighted average of the IPA-M, the IPC-BR-M and the INCC-M.


With over 795,000 time series, CEIC Brazil Premium Database provides a comprehensive view of the current situation in Brazil, including the economy, and the political, social and financial environment. 


FGV IBRE, created in 1951, calculates price indices, indicators of business and consumer confidence, indicators of economic cycles and other sectorial data, in addition to having the expertise of renowned economic experts. The institution was even responsible for calculating official country indicators.

The data combined from CEIC Brazil Premium and FGV IBRE allow you to perform a more comprehensive analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic scenario, understanding the inflation, following up the consumer index and their expectations, among others analysis, that will help you with the investment decisions and to mitigate risks.