Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
 
No signs of a rebound in economic activity across the Euro Area are forecast in the short term according to data from our CEIC Leading Indicator. The indicator decreased to 87.2 in October, a reading way below the long-run trend of 100, which divides a positive and negative outlook. The stark contrast between the levels of performance of manufacturing and services remained. Manufacturing PMI kept trending downwards in Q3, reaching a 2019 low of 45.7 in September before it increased marginally to 45.9 in October.
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Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
 
Economic activity will remain slow in the short term, according to the CEIC Leading Indicator. Data from the indicator recorded a decrease to 86.73. It has now remained for over a year under the longterm threshold of 100, dividing positive and negative outlook. Manufacturing PMI picked up by 50 bp from July to a value of 47 in August, though still remaining in pessimistic territory.
 
Similarly, seasonally-adjusted data for the business climate recorded a slight increase in August to 0.11. 
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Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
 
According to preliminary data, the smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for the eurozone economy fell to 84.6 in June 2019, losing 1.3 points compared to the previous month. The indicator has been declining since August 2017, thereby anticipating the eurozone’s weak economic performance throughout 2018 and coinciding with the lukewarm forecasts for 2019. While the first quarter of the year saw some positive signs, during the April-June period the indicator’s performance weakened again, signifying...
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Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
 
According to preliminary data, the CEIC Leading Indicator for the eurozone economy fell to 86.7 in March 2019, losing 0.3 points compared to the previous month. The indicator has been in decline since August 2017, thereby anticipating the euro zone’s weak economic performance throughout 2018 and coinciding with the lukewarm forecasts for 2019. Nevertheless, the indicator’s poor performance has mellowed down for the last three quarters and m/m differences have considerably improved, providing hope for positive developments in the near future.
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