Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2020
The gloomy short-term outlook became a reality as the main economies of the Euro Area plummeted into their worse recession on record in Q1 2020. Since lockdown measures became widespread from mid-March onwards and are expected to remain throughout Q2, economies across the eurozone will contract at an even faster rate in Q2 2020. According to the CEIC Leading Indicator, the economy of the Euro Area will shrink severely in Q2. The index, which has remained below the threshold of 100 since September 2018, collapsed to 33.88 in April from 80.89 in March on a steep downward trend.
Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
No acceleration in economic activity is expected in the short term, according to the CEIC Leading Indicator. The indicator declined to 88.7 in January 2020. It has now remained for over a year under the long-term threshold of 100, which divides a positive and negative outlook. High-frequency data suggests a contraction of the Euro Area economy comparable to the one of 2008 economic crisis. The flash estimate of the composite PMI for the eurozone plummeted to 31.4 in March 2020 – the lowest value recorded in the history of the index.
Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
No signs of a rebound in economic activity across the Euro Area are forecast in the short term according to data from our CEIC Leading Indicator. The indicator decreased to 87.2 in October, a reading way below the long-run trend of 100, which divides a positive and negative outlook. The stark contrast between the levels of performance of manufacturing and services remained. Manufacturing PMI kept trending downwards in Q3, reaching a 2019 low of 45.7 in September before it increased marginally to 45.9 in October.
Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
Economic activity will remain slow in the short term, according to the CEIC Leading Indicator. Data from the indicator recorded a decrease to 86.73. It has now remained for over a year under the longterm threshold of 100, dividing positive and negative outlook. Manufacturing PMI picked up by 50 bp from July to a value of 47 in August, though still remaining in pessimistic territory.
Similarly, seasonally-adjusted data for the business climate recorded a slight increase in August to 0.11.
Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
According to preliminary data, the smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for the eurozone economy fell to 84.6 in June 2019, losing 1.3 points compared to the previous month. The indicator has been declining since August 2017, thereby anticipating the eurozone’s weak economic performance throughout 2018 and coinciding with the lukewarm forecasts for 2019. While the first quarter of the year saw some positive signs, during the April-June period the indicator’s performance weakened again, signifying...
Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
According to preliminary data, the CEIC Leading Indicator for the eurozone economy fell to 86.7 in March 2019, losing 0.3 points compared to the previous month. The indicator has been in decline since August 2017, thereby anticipating the euro zone’s weak economic performance throughout 2018 and coinciding with the lukewarm forecasts for 2019. Nevertheless, the indicator’s poor performance has mellowed down for the last three quarters and m/m differences have considerably improved, providing hope for positive developments in the near future.