The CEIC smoothed leading indicator for the Chinese economy slipped to 93.5 at the end of Q3 2019 from 95.4 at the end of Q2, suggesting protracted slowdown trend due to internal and external challenges. The composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), however, suggests a slightly better outlook for production. The composite PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated a slight expansion to 53.1 at the end of Q3 2019 from 53 at the end of Q2.
The smoothed CEIC leading indicator remained on a steady downward trend in Q2 2019, suggesting a lower growth rate at least for a quarter ahead. The indicator’s reading was 93.71 in April. Due to the shock from the US-China trade tensions, it decreased significantly to 90.63 in May but managed to gain a little ground to 90.87 in June.
The CEIC Smoothed Leading Indicator for the Chinese economy was 93.4 in April 2019, declining for 13 months in a row from its peak of 112.3 in March 2018. After the slight increase in January 2019, the unsmoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined to 91.3 in April 2019, which was its lowest level since February 2015.
The CEIC Smoothed Leading Indicator for the Chinese economy was 100.9 in December 2018, declining by 1.8 pp m/m and approaching its long-term trend (100). Raw data for the same period (99) suggested that China fell below its long-term trend for the first time since September 2015 and registered the sharpest decline since June 2014.
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