China Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2020
Economic activity seems set to recover from Q2 2020 onwards, albeit very gradually, as a result of fiscal and monetary measures undertaken in Q1 2020 to counter the economic impact of COVID-19, China getting the coronavirus spread under control and further stimulus measures announced in early April 2020.
The CEIC Leading Indicator improved to 85.8 in March 2020 after a two-year low of 61.3 in February.
China Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2020
The CEIC smoothed leading indicator for the Chinese economy slipped further to 87.82 points at the end of Q4 2019 from 90.39 at the end of Q3, suggesting a continuous slowdown trend due to internal and external challenges.
The composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), however, signals a better outlook for production. The composite PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics rose to 53.5 points at the end of Q4 2019 from 53.1 at the end of Q3.
China Economy in a Snapshot Q4 2019
The CEIC smoothed leading indicator for the Chinese economy slipped to 93.5 at the end of Q3 2019 from 95.4 at the end of Q2, suggesting protracted slowdown trend due to internal and external challenges.
The composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), however, suggests a slightly better outlook for production. The composite PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated a slight expansion to 53.1 at the end of Q3 2019 from 53 at the end of Q2.
China Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019
The smoothed CEIC leading indicator remained on a steady downward trend in Q2 2019, suggesting a lower growth rate at least for a quarter ahead. The indicator’s reading was 93.71 in April. Due to the shock from the US-China trade tensions, it decreased significantly to 90.63 in May but managed to gain a little ground to 90.87 in June.
Manufacturing PMI pointed to continuing weakness in the sector, as in May it fell again below the threshold of 50 to 49.4.
China Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019
The CEIC Smoothed Leading Indicator for the Chinese economy was 93.4 in April 2019, declining for 13 months in a row from its peak of 112.3 in March 2018. After the slight increase in January 2019, the unsmoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined to 91.3 in April 2019, which was its lowest level since February 2015. Economic activity has been steadily losing momentum since its peak in February 2018.
China Economy in a Snapshot Q1 2019
The CEIC Smoothed Leading Indicator for the Chinese economy was 100.9 in December 2018, declining by 1.8 pp m/m and approaching its long-term trend (100). Raw data for the same period (99) suggested that China fell below its long-term trend for the first time since September 2015 and registered the sharpest decline since June 2014. Declines were observed in the cyclical components of all eight indicator components, with automobile production and deposits being deep below the long-term trend.